Goal

Our group was asked by Madison Gas and Electric Company (MGE), a utility serving Madison, Wisconsin, to evaluate emission reductions scenarios relevant to its goal of reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

Objectives

We focus on the following research questions:

Is MGE’s goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 in line with efforts to limit average global temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recognizes that keeping warming below this threshold will help reduce the most adverse impacts of climate change.
What can we learn from the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) scenarios to inform the plans of a relatively small utility? IAMC manages a database, which contains the results of worldwide efforts to model energy and land-use changes that would keep warming below the 1.5°C target.
What additional research on the transition to a low-carbon future would support planning by MGE and its community stakeholders?

Research Outcomes

MGE’s goal is consistent with modeled pathways for the electricity sector in industrialized countries. Because the IAMC scenarios aggregate multiple countries, we compared how model assumptions align with trends in Madison, Wisconsin. Factors including growing population, rising average household income, and expanding electric vehicle (EV) adoption point toward an expected increase in Madison’s electricity consumption, which was consistent with IAMC scenarios. MGE’s ultimate pathway toward its goal will depend on many factors, including electricity demand (including from EVs), energy efficiency measures, and shifting sources of power generation. We recommend research into the impact of low-carbon electricity, transportation electrification, and/or other fuel transitions on public health and the environment beyond climate change.