Goal

The Holloway Group studies how energy system changes affect air quality and health. A series of papers led by former Ph.D. student David Abel used the EPA CMAQ model and other assessment tools to evaluate changes to energy generation, efficiency, and demand.

Objectives

Estimate the air quality and mortality impacts of a reduction in baseload electricity demand
Evaluate how solar photovoltaics (PV) in the Eastern United States could reduce fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and precursor emissions
Calculate the air pollution and health impacts of a warmer climate with and without greater use of air conditioning
Quantify the relationship between ambient surface temperatures and power plant emissions

Outcomes

Nationwide, we estimate a 12% summer reduction in electricity demand will lower ambient PM_2.5 by 0.55% and ozone (O₃) by 0.45%. Reduced exposure to PM_2.5 avoids 300 premature deaths annually valued at $2.8 billion, and reduced exposure to O₃ averts 175 deaths valued at $1.6 billion. This translates into a health savings rate of $0.049/kWh. (D.W. Abel et al., 2019)

We found that replacing 17% of electricity generation in the Eastern United States with PV would decrease average nitrogen oxide (NO_X) and sulfer dioxide (SO₂) emissions across the region by 20% and 15%, respectively. Resulting PM_2.5 concentrations decreased on average 4.7%. In the five largest cities in the region, we find that the most polluted days show the most significant PM_2.5 decrease. We find summer health benefits from reduced PM_2.5 exposure estimated as 1424 avoided premature deaths or a health savings of $13.1 billion. (D.W. Abel et al., 2018b)

In calculating the effects of air conditioning use in a warmer climate, we found that concentrations of PM_2.5 and O₃ increase with 3.8% of the total increase in PM_2.5 and 6.7% of the total increase in O₃ attributable to extra air conditioning use. Increased air conditioning, specifically, accounts for 654 future summer PM_2.5-related deaths ($6 billion cost) and 315 O₃-related deaths ($3 billion cost) above deaths from climate change alone. (D.W. Abel et al., 2018a)

From 2007 to 2012, we found that EGUs in the Eastern U.S. exhibited a 3.87% increase in electricity generation per °C increase during summer months. This is associated with a 3.35%/°C increase in SO₂ emissions, a 3.60%/°C increase in NO_X emissions, and a 3.32%/°C increase in CO₂ emissions. (D.W. Abel et al., 2017)

Funding Partners:

NIH, NREL, and gifts to UW–Madison

Timeline:

2016 – 2019

Tools:

AVoided Emissions and geneRation Tool (AVERT)

Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System (CMAQ)

Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP)

Regional Building Energy Simulation System (RBESS)

MyPower Model

GridView

Publications

Potential air quality benefits from increased solar photovoltaic electricity generation in the Eastern United States

Response of Power Plant Emissions to Ambient Temperature in the Eastern United States

Core Team Members:

Tracey Holloway, David Abel, Monica Harkey, Paul Meier, Javier Martinez-Santos

Select an image to learn more

D. W. Abel et al., “Air Quality-Related Health Benefits of Energy Efficiency in the United States,” Environ. Sci. Technol., vol. 53, no. 7, pp. 3987–3998, Apr. 2019, doi: 10.1021/acs.est.8b06417.

D. W. Abel et al., “Air-quality-related health impacts from climate change and from adaptation of cooling demand for buildings in the eastern United States: An interdisciplinary modeling study,” PLOS Medicine, vol. 15, no. 7, p. e1002599, Jul. 2018, doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002599.

D. W. Abel et al., “Potential air quality benefits from increased solar photovoltaic electricity generation in the Eastern United States,” Atmospheric Environment, vol. 175, pp. 65–74, Feb. 2018, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.11.049.

D. W. Abel et al., “Response of Power Plant Emissions to Ambient Temperature in the Eastern United States,” Environ. Sci. Technol., vol. 51, no. 10, pp. 5838–5846, May 2017, doi: 10.1021/acs.est.6b06201.